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2012 Reality Check: Counting Republican Delegates

Newt Gingrich is ahead of Rick Santorum in committed delegates. As he arrives in Barrington for the March 20 primary, he is still in the race for the Republican nomination in Tampa in August.

Here's an interesting story from the Washington Times.

Did you know that Newt Gingrich is ahead of Rick Santorum in committed delegates?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/8/rncs-delegate-count-...

The official RNC totals of committed delegates so far are as follows:

  • 339 Romney
  • 107 Gingrich
  •   95 Santorum
  •   22 Paul

It requires 1144 delegates to win the nomination at the Republican convention in Tampa in August.

Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum should both do well this next week in Alabama and Mississippi to pick up more delegates by proportional allocation.

This is remarkably different than the picture that the AP and various media have been presenting to readers and viewers recently. Their reporting has concentrated largely on opinion polls and the popular vote totals in states, rather than the actual allocation of delegates. They have used projections which add in estimates of future delegate commitments based on non-binding caucuses and primaries rather than committed delegates.

Here is another really interesting commentary by Dr. Martin Wolf in the Washington Times

Mitt beat Rick, but Newt beat Barack

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/8/mitt-beat-rick-but-n...

The article highlights Newt's recent video about energy policy and the potential to get back to gas prices of $2.50 per gallon or less on a sustainable basis. The White House has been trying, and failing, to refute his arguments.

The other story of Super Tuesday which was lost in the media coverage was how badly Mitt Romney lost to the "not Romney" option in most states.

Romney won his home state of Massachusetts, where neither Santorum nor Gingrich invested significant effort. Neither did much in Idaho, either. Both states are not likely to be a major factor in achieving a Republican victory in November. Virginia went to Romney by default because his supporters managed to keep the other candidates off the ballot there so that Virginia voters would not have a choice.

Even in Vermont, facing little opposition, Romney only attracted 40% support.

Elsewhere, despite the fact that he has been campaigning for six years now and has spent tens of millions of dollars of Republican donations attacking fellow Republican candidates recently, he's mostly under 33% support.

On Saturday, March 10, Romney won only 21% of the vote in the Kansas caucuses even though Newt Gingrich chose not to actively campaign there.  In other words, the "not Romney" option won with 79% of the vote in Kansas.

How does this make Romney the inevitable choice to challenge Obama, and all the money which the Obama campaign will use to attack any Republican candidate? If he can't even beat conservative Republicans by outspending them by margins of 5 or 10 to 1 or more, how will he fare against an incumbent President Obama with far more money?

Don't forget: Romney lost to McCain - and McCain lost to Obama. Republican voters who want to defeat President Obama as their top priority should keep this in mind. Obama will have far more money.

Both Santorum and Gingrich have been running very conservative "grassroots" campaigns on very tight budgets because the media narrative all along has been that they don't really have a chance, and Romney is the inevitable nominee.

Newt's strategy isn't based on massive fundraising. He has directly challenged the policy ideas of President Obama. He has challenged him to a series of "Lincoln-Douglas" style debates, and has the political skill to win such debates.

The Drudge Report characterized Newt Gingrich as "Lazarus" because he keeps coming back despite the repeated rumors of his demise at every opportunity.

Rick Santorum just seems to be the conservative "not Romney" candidate of the moment after touting his non-binding victories as though they are the same thing as committed delegates.

They aren't. Those projections can still change as the process moves forward and the final delegate selections are made in each state. As his campaign has started to attract media scrutiny, he has looked like a deer in the headlights during debates and while explaining his controversial ideas.

The bottom line is that the Illinois Republican primary on March 20 is really going to matter.

Regardless of any prior polling, Newt Gingrich is definitely a serious contender and will campaign actively here in the Barrington area next week. He has full slates of 54 delegates and 54 alternates in all 18 districts of Illinois.

Further analysis about the Newt 2012 campaign in Illinois is available at

http://barringtontea.ning.com/profiles/blogs/2012-reality-check

Upcoming events in the area witn Newt volunteers are also posted there at

http://barringtontea.ning.com/events

Additional information can be found at http://illinoiswithnewt.org/ 

or through the Illinois With Newt page on Facebook.

http://www.facebook.com/IllinoisWithNewt 

This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

EvaLynn March 19, 2012 at 03:24 PM
None of these guys have a chance. They are the most arrogant, pompous, elitists out there. They have no clue what the "average Joe" goes through. Ron Paul is the only one that comes across honest, and down to earth and makes the most sense. I feel sorry for the voters.

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