Ames Straw Poll: a Barrington Perspective

I attended the Ames Straw Poll this weekend, which was quite an experience.  This reports my own perspective on the event as an independent observer from Illinois.  I was unable to vote, but was very interested in the campaigns and the organizational work by volunteers across all of Iowa which the Straw Poll reflected.

Incidentally, every voter in the Ames Straw Poll had to show a valid photo ID.  Here in Illinois, we still don't even require that for the real elections!  A finger was also inked, as in Iraq and Afghanistan, so that no attendee could vote twice just by buying multiple tickets to the event.  Overall, it was a very impressive event.

As the organizer of the local Barrington Tea Party group in 2010, I wanted to see how our friends in Iowa are evaluating the 2012 candidates, and hear the candidate presentations and meet them in person.

Illinois has one of the early primaries in 2012, and candidates will need volunteers this fall to circulate petitions to get on the ballot, and to organize local voter outreach work and fundraising or town hall events.  Voters who want to make a difference in 2012 should already get involved in the campaign of their choice.

One of the more interesting sponsors at the Ames Straw Poll was an independent group which is trying to get candidates in both parties to support the "lean Six Sigma" process for waste reduction in government programs.  Their "Strong America Now" organization had many supporters.

http://www.strongamericanow.com 

There was also a major presence by the supporters of the "Fair Tax" initiative.  To oversimplify greatly, this would replace the IRS and the income tax system with a national sales tax.  The details are elaborated on their website.

http://www.fairtax.org 

Rick Perry is now officially in the race, and Tim Pawlenty is out.  It is unclear where the Pawlenty supporters will go.  He had put a lot of money and effort into the state, and it obviously didn't work.  He picked up only 13.57 percent of the votes, as compared to 28.55% for Bachmann and 27.65 percent for Ron Paul.  By Sunday morning, Pawlenty had already announced the end of his campaign.

The fact that Pawlenty came in a distant third, only a little better than Rick Santorum or Herman Cain, was a signal that his campaign wasn't gaining any real traction.  One assumption is that many Republicans who were backing Pawlenty in lieu of Romney will now flip over to support Rick Perry rather than Bachmann.

Mitt Romney, who didn't show up or campaign in Iowa but was on the ballot, got fewer votes than Rick Perry did as a write-in.  Since Romney did fairly well in the Iowa caucus 4 years ago, that shows the party insiders that they cannot take victory in the caucus next year for granted.  By Sunday, Rick Perry was doing an event in Waterloo, Iowa (along with Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann).

Michele Bachmann won an impressive victory with the support of many enthusiastic volunteers.  She had put a lot of effort and money into Iowa to boost the credibility of her campaign, and it worked. 

It had always been expected that Ron Paul would do well in Iowa, since he had an existing network of loyal supporters from prior elections to mobilize the turnout for this straw poll, as for other straw polls.

Sarah Palin needs to make up her mind in September, when she will be back in Iowa for an event at the start of the month.  I saw Palin at the Iowa State Fair on Friday when she showed up for the Sean Hannity show, and the surprising thing about that was how little "buzz" there was at the Fair about her presence.

The Iowa State Fair is a huge event, but many attendees seemed blissfully unaware of her presence that day, or disinterested in it.  They were there to have fun, or for their usual Fair activities - not politics.  By contrast, the Ames Straw Poll on Saturday was all about politics, but had a similarly festive atmosphere.

It was rather hard to even find Palin at the Iowa State Fair, other than by finding the news media satellite trucks and asking their crews.  The Hannity show attracted a modest crowd - only a tiny fraction of the Fair attendees.  I would guess that perhaps 500 or more people crowded around the Hannity stage, but there were reportedly tens of thousands of visitors at the Fair that Friday evening.

Herman Cain was also on the Hannity show at the Fair along with Sarah Palin, and the crowd liked him a lot.  The same was true after his rousing speech at the Ames Straw Poll on Saturday, even though he only finished in 5th place in the voting.  (With Pawlenty out now as #3, that raises Cain to #4). 

Since Cain didn't apparently put a lot of time and money into campaigning across Iowa yet, that seems to be a pretty credible start for his campaign.  He attracted a lot of interest among the attendees, even if they had come there to support other candidates.  His candidacy should be taken more seriously by the media.

It was good to see the strong turnout in Ames, where nearly 17,000 Iowans showed up to cast their votes.  This was their second largest turnout ever (the Ames Straw Poll started in 1979). The largest was reportedly around 22,000 in 1999, when George W. Bush was campaigning there against Steve Forbes and many others.  It was an impressive example of the organizational efforts of the Republican Party groups across Iowa counties, as well as the campaigns and Tea Party supporters.

One message from this Straw Poll seems to have been that it was all about grassroots organizing effectiveness and a bold message, not campaign money.  Bachmann and Paul had many loyal supporters, as did Santorum and Cain.  There were many loyal Pawlenty volunteers who showed up, but there was not the same energy and enthusiasm beyond that base for a candidate who had staked so much money and effort on Iowa.  His performance in the debate on Thursday, when he tried to confront Bachmann and criticize her record, seemed to backfire badly.

The old saying that "money can't buy you love" seems to apply.  The Iowa voters I met were very engaged and well-informed, and determined to choose wisely. They will unite behind whoever becomes the Republican nominee, with the exception of a few Ron Paul zealots who said they may not vote if he loses.

The event was somewhat like the very successful RightNation 2010 regional event here last fall, but much bigger as a national campaign event with many of the leading candidates for President.  The RightNation 2011 event is planned for November 3-5.  Herman Cain caught the attention of featured speaker Glenn Beck last fall with his outstanding speech at RightNation 2010.

http://www.unitedtorestorefreedom.com/rightnation2011/ 

Some of the local Tea Party groups have also been planning a different "straw poll" event in Schaumburg for the end of September, dubbed TeaCon 2011.  It is being promoted by WIND AM560 with speakers such as Glenn Beck and Andrew Breitbart.  http://www.560wind.com/pages/TeaCon_Home 

Rick Santorum did fairly well, finishing a relatively close 4th behind Tim Pawlenty.  He had many loyal volunteers in Ames, and had done a lot of work through many events across the state to build up that base of support, particularly with the help of pro-life groups.  That boosted the credibility of his campaign somewhat, but he is still struggling to be taken seriously as a contender by news media.

Ron Paul had his usual base of loyal supporters, some of whom manage to be really obnoxious by acting like some of the radical progressives (shouting down other candidates, trying to disrupt their events, etc.).  They literally booed when they lost the straw poll to Michele Bachmann by a narrow margin, and then started to chant "Ron Paul" to disrupt the live Fox News broadcast about the results.

Ron Paul seems to have lost some supporters in the debate when he tried to make excuses for Iran having a nuclear weapons program, as though that was somehow our fault historically and was OK by him.  It is one thing to want any wars to be properly authorized by Congress and quite another to think that the rest of the world would leave us in peace if we would just ignore them.  That's insanely dangerous for any President, as should be intuitively obvious to most Americans.

He may have the organization to mobilize enough loyal supporters to win straw polls, and there is some support for his economic or other libertarian views, but Ron Paul will never be the Republican nominee.  Frankly, the thought of him giving four years of absurd speeches should frighten away any serious voters.

As for the others, it's hard to see why people like Jon Huntsman or Thaddeus McCotter are even in the race, other than perhaps to pick up a little name recognition for future campaigns.  The same goes for Buddy Roemer, Fred Karger, and Gary Johnson.  Whether it is just an ego trip or an effort to gain a little publicity for a favorite issue or any future ambitions, they are going nowhere.

Newt Gingrich did reasonably well in the debate on Thursday night to breathe some fresh life back into his campaign.  He didn't really campaign actively across Iowa for the straw poll or put money into having a presence at the event.  He showed up, but clearly was not a factor in the straw poll, and never expected to be among the leaders in the results. 

That doesn't mean Gingrich is out of the running, however, for the caucuses and primaries early next year.  Just as Romney chose to put very little effort into the Ames Straw Poll, and Perry didn't even show up, Gingrich didn't make it a priority.  His depth of knowledge on many policy issues could serve him well as voters move into the caucus and primary process.  I wouldn't count him out yet, despite the efforts by many in the news media to declare his campaign over already.

A few commentators thought Rick Perry made a tactical mistake by announcing his candidacy on the same day as the Ames Straw Poll, thereby grabbing attention away from the political event of the year for Iowans.  He might have been better advised to wait until his Sunday appearance in Waterloo, but I didn't get the impression that anyone in Iowa was really going to hold it against him.  Their focus will be on his record, his plans, and the effectiveness of his campaign as it goes forward, not any such perceived slight to the organizers of the event in Ames.  That gave pundits something to talk about for a day, but is of no consequence.

Now is when the candidates must focus on serious fundraising and organizational work for their campaigns to be ready to do well in the Iowa caucuses and the early 2012 primaries.  The caucuses attract far more participants than the Ames Straw Poll, so this event is just a biased sample for some of the campaigns to test their organizational skills, such as by getting their most active supporters to Ames.  It is not a reliable predictor of future campaign success, but it is a first test.

Now the campaigns will need to get onto the ballots in all 50 states, and here in Illinois that is going to require a lot of volunteer effort this fall to circulate petitions on their behalf and start arousing more interest among donors and voters.  As in the Ames Straw Poll, it's time for active volunteers here in Illinois to start making their own choices and start working hard for their preferred candidates.

The organizers in Ames had expected over 10,000 attendees to vote, and ended up with nearly 17,000.  Voter registration in Iowa among Republicans has been rising every month, and it was reported that roughly 10% of Iowa Democrats have switched party preferences this year.  The energy shown in the November 2010 election has not gone away in Iowa.  It was impressive to see how many Iowa volunteeers were already very actively engaged in work for all of these campaigns.  The Republican Party in Illinois, with vastly more voters than Iowa, could really learn a lesson about grassroots campaign organizing from our friends in Iowa.