Local Survey About Republican Presidential Candidate Preferences

A survey of Barrington Tea Party members was taken right after the May 5 debate in South Carolina on Fox News, and again after the June 13 debate on CNN.

A similar survey will be conducted after the August 11 debate on Fox News and the August 13 straw poll in Ames, Iowa – which some members will attend to meet the campaigns and their supporters in Iowa in preparation for the March primary in Illinois.

An interesting aspect of the survey is that there was almost no overlap between the survey participants in May and June.  There were only 2 members who responded to both surveys, even though the e-mail survey was sent out to the same people (roughly 450 local households).

One surprise was that there was no difference in the level of interest in viewing the debates between the one in May on Fox News and the one in June on CNN.  Since this is a group of conservative voters who are very interested in the 2012 election already, it was expected that viewership might be higher both times, or might have favored Fox News.

Did you watch the Republican candidate debate?

• In May, only 42% watched the debate on Fox News
• In June, only 43% watched the debate on CNN

A new question in June was whether or not the member might change candidate preference between now and the March 2012 primary.  The results may surprise some people, because 85% of the members still have an open mind about changing their candidate preferences, despite 52% having a strong preference already.

Do you think your #1 preference may change prior to the March 2012 primary?

• Yes                  33%
• Maybe              52%
• No                   15%

Another question was the level of confidence in the ability of their preferred candidate to defeat Barack Obama in November.  This seems to reflect cautious optimism despite their willingness to work in support of the eventual nominee. 

Are you confident that your #1 preference can win nationally against Obama?

• Yes                  57%
• Maybe              19%
• No                   24%

Unlike most public opinion polls of registered voters or likely primary voters, this was an even more selective sample group.  These are individuals who have chosen to become more politically active and informed, so another question related to their level of expected commitment to help any Republican nominee win in 2012 – even if that might not be the candidate they preferred. 

Would you be willing to help any Republican nominee to win against Obama?

• Yes                  76%
• Maybe              19%
• No                     5%

This contradicts the popular media narrative about the Tea Party movement having some sort of ideological “purity test”.  Despite their personal candidate preferences and any concerns over specific issues, the group seems to be pragmatic and committed to working for a Republican victory in 2012.  In short, 95% of the participants expect to be willing to help the eventual nominee, even though a few remain skeptical at this early stage.

Incidentally, the participants in this survey came from across multiple townships in the greater Barrington area – Barrington, Cuba, Ela, Palatine, Algonquin, and Wauconda.

The preferences among candidates has changed since May as new candidates joined the competition and a few already dropped out.  The most obvious change is the rise of Michele Bachmann, but there is also some interest in other potential candidates such as Rick Pery and Sarah Palin, who have not yet announced their plans.

See the following link for a graphic summary of the choices in response to this survey question:

Who are your current #1 and #2 preferences among ALL potential candidates?

http://barringtontea.ning.com/notes/June_2011_Member_Survey 

Contrast the June results to the similar May survey, taken before Michele Bachmann confirmed her candidacy – and before Mitch Daniels and Mike Huckabee dropped out of the race.

The top choices in June were:

1. Michele Bachmann
2. Mitt Romney
3. Herman Cain
4. Ron Paul
5. Rick Santorum
6. Rick Perry
7. Tim Pawlenty
8. Newt Gingrich

A few observations:

• Michele Bachmann has surged past Mitt Romney, who also has more support
• Interest in Newt Gingrich has fallen sharply
• Interest in Sarah Palin has declined - for now - but she hasn't announced her plans yet
• Herman Cain still has fairly strong support
• Rick Perry was already attracting some interest by June, even though he was not even suggested in May, and still has not officially announced his likely candidacy
• Rick Santorum attracted some more interest.  He was in the May debate, but did not attract any support in the survey responses at that time.
• Ron Paul still has the same base of a few loyal supporters.
• Tim Pawlenty has gained no traction at all.
• Interest in undeclared candidates (Christie, West, Ryan) has largely faded 

 We will see how local opinions change after the August 11 debate and the August 13 Ames straw poll in Iowa.  By September, candidates should already be circulating petitions to get onto the ballot for the Illinois primary next March.   Campaigns will be getting more organized, and the initial field of candidates will shrink as some of the hopefuls realize that their efforts are not sparking sufficient voter or donor interest.

Some Congressional and state or local campaigns have already been announced, but local voter interest should increase this fall as the Illinois primary approaches.  There will be “meet and greet” opportunities and candidate forums as well as informational events and debates about key issues.  It’s time to shift focus away from the political problems and games in Washington and Springfield, and focus instead on the solutions which can be achieved by engaging the interest and support of voters as the real leaders of this country.

As more local voters start to pay attention to the 2012 election, we will develop other surveys beyond the hundreds of known Tea Party supporters in the Barrington area.

Commentary and graphic analysis of the May survey of members can be found at http://barringtontea.ning.com/notes/May_2011_Member_Survey