Health & Fitness
Obama fundraising: Should Republicans worry?
The media spin is that Obama raised more money in the second quarter than all of the Republican candidates combined. True enough - but there's more to the story.
The media spin is that the Obama for America (OFA) campaign raised more money in the last quarter ($47 million) than all of the Republican candidates combined. True enough - but there's more to the story than the way that his friends are spinning it as another success.
The OFA campaign has already scaled back their highly touted $1 billion fundraising goal to $750 million - less than in 2008 - and they seem to be well behind the pace necessary to achieve that. In fact, they seem to be on a pace which is more consistent with a $350 - $400 million re-election campaign, such as Bush against Kerry in 2004.
Here's an interesting column on RedState with the numbers.
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http://www.redstate.com/moe_lane/2011/07/13/obamas-bad-fundraising-...
If your friends think Obama's campaign is invincible, give them a fact check - and remind them that having a lot more money didn't save Melissa Bean last year.
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Many Republican donors will wait and support the eventual nominee next year rather than invest in campaigns this early in the nomination process. Similarly, when Obama was fighting Hillary Clinton for the nomination, most of his fundraising success came late in 2008 rather than early in 2007 - even though he had started campaigning very early (instead of working as Senator as promised).
As an incumbent who is not likely to face a primary challenge, it would be useful to compare his first 6 months of 2011 against the first 6 months of the Bush campaign in 2003, when Bush was in a similar situation coming out of a major recession and was not expected to face a primary challenge but was expected to face a tough Democratic challenge.
For reference, the 2004 Bush campaign raised a total of $367 million, of which nearly $6 million came from the Chicago metro area as one of the top sources of support. John Kerry raised $328 million.
If you look at the McCain campaign in 2008, you can see that he raised most of his money in the final quarters after his nomination became predictable. Like the many 2012 Republican candidates now, he struggled in 2007, raising $38 million in the first half, and only $16 million in the second half.
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/summary.php?cycle=2008&cid=N0...
Yes, at $50 million in the last 6 months, Obama is raising a lot of money - by spending a lot of his time on campaigning, rather than governing. At this pace, however, one has to wonder whether he will even achieve $500 million, rather than his new $750 million goal, or the old $1 billion goal which the media continues to repeat. Think about it. He has raised $50 million in the first 6 months of 2011. In 2007, he had raised about $59 million in the first six months. At this pace, he may not do much better than John Kerry in 2004 ($328 million), or even worse.
That doesn't suggest that his base is as thrilled about his campaign as the media spin would suggest. Remember that he picked up a lot of his donations in the final months of 2008 after donors became more confident that the Democrats would win unchecked power in the House and Senate as well as the White House as a historic election. That motivated donors. This time, the reverse is true. Donors will see that the Republicans have a very strong chance of keeping control of the House while winning the Senate and White House.
Even if Obama raises $150 million in the next six months, that still leaves him far short of his stated goals, and there is little reason to believe that he will attract the wave of popular support in 2012 that boosted his campaign in 2008. Keep in mind that OFA has been actively reaching out to all of their 2008 donors and volunteers already. In that context, the latest results are not that impressive.
The latest polls show Obama at 39% against 47% for a "generic Republican" candidate, with the remainder "undecided". As Dick Morris pointed out, 80% or more of those "undecided" voters actually go against the incumbent, because if they were happy with the incumbent, they wouldn't be "undecided". It just means that they are reserving judgment until they learn more about the nominee. Thus, if the election were held at this time, Obama might lose by a 55-45 margin or more. There is still plenty of time for that to change, but he's in real trouble.
Obama won't be easy to beat. He will have a lot of money and many active supporters who remain very determined and will work to defend and advance their progressive agenda. It will be a challenging election fight, but if Republicans also work hard at it, there is no reason why they can't win.
