Consultant's Forecast Shows Barrington 220 Enrollment Will Decline

The latest demographic study conducted by shows that the district will see a steady decline in enrollment in the next 10 years. 

“What the study allows us to do is begin to plan on how we might need to adjust programs, space, facility usage and staffing,” said Jeff Arnett, communications officer for the school district.

Arnett said the last study was conducted in 2008. He said the district conducts demographic studies every two to three years and they have shown to be very accurate.

This research was conducted by Kasarda, an independent firm, at a cost of $7,800,

The study offers three different series, that forecast enrollment – A, B and C. Arnett said the B level is the “middle road” forecast and usually proves to be most accurate.

Currently, there are more students in the district graduating from high school than entering kindergarten, according to the Kasarda study.

The projections are that, in the next 10 years, district enrollment will: A, decrease by 1219 students, B, decrease by 327 students or C. increase by 336 students. The B projection is about a 3.5 percent decrease. The forecast is that the middle schools will see the biggest enrollment decrease; in the B series, Station Middle School would see a 10 percent decrease in 10 years and Prairie Middle School would see 6.6 percent decrease.

The decline in the economy is suspected to be the cause of declining enrollment.

“We are not seeing the re-greening of homes; there is not as much turnover of residents or homes of retiring residents available to younger families. It appears the population of the school district is aging,” Arnett said.

Arnett said there is also speculation that the state of the economy has resulted in a lower birth rate. 

The enrollment is expected to begin to climb again in the next decade based on projections that the economy will turn around, Arnett said. 

The declining enrollment is likely to put plans for a third middle school on hold. A referendum for the construction of a third middle school failed in 2006. The district has property and parcels of land available for expansion. 

“That doesn’t mean we won’t revisit it (plans for a third middle school) in the future, but for the foreseeable time, given the projections, it is not on the immediate horizon,” Arnett said.